As I arranged all forecasts I had heard according to the degree of plausibility, I came up with the following. Cuba is evidently ready for change. It is equally clear that a transitional period will precede far-reaching reforms, and Raul Castro will, most probably, come into the limelight during that time. But then, he is an ailing old man, and does not have his elder brother's public support. I talked to many Cuban taxi drivers, and almost all of them turned out to be ardent Fidelistas. No one had a kind word to say about Raul Castro, who was their former commander as Cuban defense minister-the majority of government-employed Cuban taxi drivers are retired soldiers. My conclusion is then that Cubans will not remain "quiet and docile" during the transitional period, which can turn out to be much shorter than expected, and may have unpleasant surprises in store for Raul Castro.
Babalu Blog: "When it rains, it pours..."
Raul, El tercero chulo and the GRANPA expedition.
This must be analysed, because is said by a Russian, a non-american insider.
I agree that the raul-bunch sit with economics, and yes, they, being corrupt, can be the third-way for "capitalism" to enter Cuba.
I agree that there will be a transition period, maybe until the beast is still alive.
I agree that if Raul (mayusculo, por una vez) do not improuve dramatically the lives of cubans, cubans will react.
But USA and /or FREEDOM is not a necessary burden to survive, because they have THREE LEGS, (remember what castro said?): China, Venezuela and ...oil.
The Venezuela's gold-shower will last few months, soon medics and educators will be fired, and China will become "El tercero chulo" after URSS and VENEZUELA, until the oil will came to save the regime's ass.
Do cubans will prouve something to Raul?
I doubt, i like cubans, but, as said by dissident Valdés Guevara, recently in-miamized, «La población no tiene vida, pero no quiere hacer nada para lograr el cambio».
And the exile?
Too busy to make a new life outside to volunteer for a new GRANPA expedition (that would be an immense hit to the tyranny, and probably an immense success.), can only roast himself into impossibles dilemmas (desembargo/free travel, wetfoot, etc) while ear-smoking of rage to see yaers passing and castros kidnapping his patria and blakmailing their families.
Babalu Blog: When it rains, it pours...